World: Barley crop 2025 forecast up 0.3 mln tonnes

A small increase in barley crop’25 forecast, to 144.9 mln tonnes (+0.3 mln tonnes) in RMI Analytics’ latest report is realized through small gains in EU-27+UK, Canada, and Australia crop. The improvement is based upon good early crop conditions and a potential to increase barley planted area. the industry experts said.

A similar +0.3 mln tonnes increase in crop’24 to 142.6 mln tonnes with Australia up slightly.

The continued weak demand environment means these small production increases shift directly through to an increase in ending stocks, making the balance sheet a tiny bit more comfortable. Still, crop’25 ending stocks decline from crop’24, but to a lesser degree. Higher corn prices increase feed barley usage, while industrial demand declines.

The northern hemisphere barley cycle for crop’25 is off to a positive start, with spring barley plantings generally proceeding ahead of normal pace. Argentina and Australia moisture prospects are mostly improved, but dry areas still exist. Supply remains secure with demand the on-going challenge.

Prices for the world’s malting barley are relatively quiet with France leading the way higher in USD terms. Dramatic currency swings from a weakening USD are occurring as seen in France where nominal barley prices are down locally but higher in USD. Prices in the other key malting barley regions are mostly unchanged and leave prices in these other origins closely clustered. The constant threat of a shifting US tariff strategy leaves the barley market with a high degree of uncertainty. The French premium of crop’25 over crop’24 is being maintained but it is at risk due to the good early crop prospects for crop’25.

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