Argentina: Barley crop forecast steady at 5.2 mln tonnes

Substantial rains have fallen across most of South America the past two weeks, and more rain is forecast next week. For Argentina, the rain that exceeded over 100mm in places and also fell on the northern and north-east regions which needed rain (and improved the moisture profile in these regions), was quite beneficial. A bit more concerning is the substantive rains in Uruguay and Brazil where crops are in or near harvest, RMI Analytics said in their November report.

The analysts’ Argentina barley crop size forecast stays steady at 5.2 mln tonnes, which remains just above local estimates at 5.0 - 5.1 mln tonnes. Crop’23 barley shipments are nearly complete with no further trade expected, leaving stocks in the area of 0.5 mln tonnes.

Stocks will grow in crop’24 with a larger crop, but require exports to match crop’23.