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CASTLE MALTING NEWS en colaboración con www.e-malt.com Spanish
15 January, 2023



Brewing news World: Attention remains focused on pathway to beer sales recovery - analysts

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global beer volumes is well-known by now and attention remains focused on the pathway of the recovery, RMI Analytics said in their January report.

The analysts’ beer volume estimate includes a steady but declining volume recovery rate through 2025, at between 1-2% annual growth. This declining growth rate is a result of a slowing in the momentum of the initial stimulus funding and the ongoing inflation pressure on consumers in their purchasing decisions, the RMI analysts said.

In 2022, beer volumes returned to nearly pre-pandemic levels and through Q3 the results from major brewers and distillers have remained favourable, with strong volume growth and ongoing margin recovery, including the continued benefit from premiumization. It appears consumers remain unwilling to alter their post-pandemic expenditures focused upon social activities. However, the inflationary impacts are placing pressure on consumers when it comes to the purchasing of goods, such as electronics and clothing.

For services and hospitability, the analysts expect a continued rebound toward pre-pandemic expenditure levels which is favourable for alcohol consumption as well, but there are cracks appearing within the recovery.

In the UK, pub associations are already encountering signs of consumers ‘trading down’ to more affordable brands, as escalating beer prices pressure consumers’ budgets. This aligns to Q3 financial results from Heineken and Carlsberg, who expressed caution about sales slowdown, in Europe particularly.

In the US, consumers continue their enjoyment of dining, and food and beverage spending. The resilience of consumers’ ‘social’ spending on luxuries, including alcoholic beverages, is a positive, but it is occurring amidst an overall decline in retail sales which is a growing concern. Further, beer prices were reportedly up 7% in the US in Q4 2022, with major light lager brands up 10%. Transportation and ingredient costs were outlined as the main drivers for the upward price movements. This leaves a lingering question as to whether the US consumers are prepared to absorb such further price increases, or rather there is an expansion of the UK trend of consumers trading down to more economical products.





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