UK: Barley balance expected to be heavier this season

AHDB published on October 20 the 2022/23 Early Balance Sheets for wheat and barley, which give a first look at supply and demand for the season ahead.

The barley balance is expected to be heavier this season on the back of higher supplies and a reduction in demand. However, the balance remains below the previous five-year average.

Despite smaller carry-in stocks, the total availability of barley this season is expected to be 120 thousand tonnes higher than in 2021/22 at 8.229 mln tonnes due to a rise in production.

Barley production is estimated at 7.19 mln tonnes, 229 thousand tonnes up on the year. The rise in output is due to higher than average yields outweighing a smaller planted area. As with wheat, barley production has been estimated by AHDB for the purposes of these balance sheets.

Despite a projected rise in usage by the brewing, malting and distilling sector (BMD), a fall in animal usage has led to total domestic consumption of barley to decline by 155 thousand tonnes on the year to 6.154 mln tonnes.

Despite the increase in cost of living BMD usage of barley is expected to remain robust this year with increased distilling capacity available in Scotland this season too.

Demand for barley in animal feed is expected to fall on the year by 196 thousand tonnes. At the start of last season barley was being included heavily in rations, which was a lag from 2020/21 when there was ample supply of barley. As there was a large wheat crop last season, wheat then featured more heavily in rations from around Q2 at the expense of barley. This trend is expected to continue this season, with the plentiful supply of domestic wheat.

With a larger supply and lacklustre demand, the barley balance is projected to increase this year by 276 thousand tonnes to 2.075 mln tonnes. Despite being higher on the year, the balance remains slightly below the previous five-year average. Taking into account an operating stock requirement of 800 thousand tonnes, this leaves an exportable surplus of 1.275 mln tonnes, 347 thousand tonnes higher on the year.

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