EU: With barley crop forecast at 57.2 mln tonnes, malting barley market is seen as comfortable

Forecast at 57.2 mln tonnes, the European harvest leaves the malting barley market comfortable, RMI Analytics said in their early September report.

For farmers, the yield, quality and prices are all generally favourable, and the returns for barley are good (partially due to inputs purchased last year).

In France, farmers are planting winter crops under dry conditions which raises concerns about early germination and establishment of the crops.

Scotland barley harvest is mostly complete and with a very good crop result as well (normal quality and big yields). England is also good from a yield and quality perspective.

In Denmark and southern Sweden, test weights and sizing are ok but low proteins are a challenge (for exporters mainly).

Looking ahead to spring malting barley crop 2023, prospects in the EU are good, farmers are forecast to maintain or increase planting area due to dry seeding conditions for winter crops and the good returns expected for barley in crop 2022.

Brewers and maltsters are covered comfortably for calendar 2023, the RMI analysts believe, and malt premiums continue to be an incentive for farmers to hold barley for potential malting barley selection.

Corn/maize yields (both in Europe and the USA) are being monitored as dry conditions are shrinking yield potential and this could boost feed barley demand.

Good harvest conditions have taken the pressure off the market from the tight crop 2021 situation. End-users (brewers and maltsters) are well covered and farmers are comfortably sold.

France’s market is quiet as export channels are busy executing pre-existing sales, but new business for feed or malting is limited. Malting premiums remain well-supported.

Mosel prices are narrowing towards Creil as demand from Germany is reduced. Low water levels continue to impact freight and logistics.

Lower protein levels in Denmark are creating a price spread between Danish and UK FOB positions (Denmark a discount to the UK). Feed prices are well-supported due to concerns regarding the maize (corn) crop amidst very dry conditions. Feed demand could further pressure a narrowing of malting premium, the analysts said.

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