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CASTLE MALTING NEWS in partnership with www.e-malt.com
08 September, 2022



Barley news World: Growing confidence in malting barley supply as norther hemisphere harvest wraps up

As northern hemisphere harvest wraps up, there is a growing confidence in the supply of malting barley quality from crop 2022, RMI Analytics said in their early September report.

Although RMI’s global barley production forecast remains slightly lower than 2021 at 146.6 mln tonnes, the harvest conditions in Europe and across North America (so far) are doing a considerable job at replenishing the malting barley pipeline but Canada needs two weeks or more to complete harvest. Nonetheless, the ending stock situation globally is forecast to be slightly lower than where crop 2021 finished up. Unfortunately this sets crop 2023 with a still tight supply and demand balance sheet, and brings with it the likelihood for another exciting and volatile growing season in 2023 but that lies in the distant future.

For now, the malting barley market seems very comfortably positioned from the position of European (and UK) maltsters and brewers. Farmers were previously very active sellers (excluding Argentina) and now with little further selling taking place. From a fundamental perspective, the world barley position is gaining more stability and on its own should fulfil industry demand.

With demand expected to remain strong, price volatility will be tightly correlated to the timing of farmer selling (supply) and end-user entry to the market (demand), the analysts said.

Price direction for global malting barley has levelled off over the past two weeks. The good situation which developed across Europe has reduced the supply pressure and prices are lower as a result. That being said, the analysts’ view remains that the rather tight barley situation compared to crop 2019 and crop 2020 will keep prices stronger. The price levels experienced 3-5 years ago appear unattainable under the current situation. Several positive factors support an increased planted area in 2023 (e.g. dry winter seeding in Europe) but until then market prices will continue to reflect the current fundamentals.

Currently, despite a good harvest result, global barley prices are well supported. A common topic is the dry weather concern in corn/maize which is expected to keep the feed complex well supported. On this basis, the opportunity for further, major downward price action is limited, the analysts believe.





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