15 August, 2022

World: World grain markets affected most of all by war in Ukraine - analysts

Futures markets were extremely volatile again in July. Most of all the Ukrainian war is affecting world markets, but now also U.S./Chinese tension comes into play, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their latest report earlier in August.

In the best of circumstances, Ukraine would export 20 mln tonnes of old crop and 60 mln tonnes of new crop grains. In July, 3 mln tonnes were shipped on the Danube and by rail, and the first vessel left Odessa through the negotiated Black Sea corridor. The war continues, and Russian politics and propaganda give little hope for peace or even compliance with agreements.

In 2021/22, Ukraine shipped 5.75 mln tonnes of barley, of which only 80 thousand tonnes in March/June. The USDA forecasts a barley crop of 5.75 vs. 9.9 mln tonnes last year.

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