Canada: 2021-22 barley carry-out stocks projected at record low level

For 2021-22, the Canadian barley supply and demand situation includes sharply lower carry-in stocks, production and supply, as well as significantly reduced domestic feed consumption and exports, as compared to last year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its June report.

Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.4 million tonnes (Mt), a record low level, due to sharply decreased supply.

The stocks-to-use ratio will continue to fall to a record low of 4%, versus 6% last year and 13% for
five-year average.

The Lethbridge feed barley price for 2021-22 is forecast to hit a new high of C$435/t, up sharply from the old record of C$294/t set in 2020-21 and well above the previous five-year average. The 2021-22 prices are supported by uncertain new crop production prospects, tight domestic barley supplies, the decline in the availability of other domestic feed grain substitutes, robust demand and stronger prices of other grains. Barley prices though are being tempered by the large quantities of US corn imports into Western Canada since last September, limiting the price increase.

For 2022-23, Canadian barley acreage is projected at 3.0 million hectares (Mha), 10% lower than 2021-22 but still 5% and 8% above the previous five- and ten-year averages. Of the total, approximately 96% are located in the three Prairie provinces: Alberta (50%), Saskatchewan (41%) and Manitoba (5%).

Production is projected to increase by 34% from 2021-22 to 9.3 Mt, based on assumptions for average yield potentials despite smaller acreage. Supply is projected to increase by 24% from 2021-22 to 9.8 Mt, assuming higher production offsetting historically low carry-in stocks and smaller imports. However, this level will be the third lowest since 2016-17.

In responding to larger supply, domestic use, including industrial use and feed use, and exports are predicted to increase from 2021-22. Carry-out stocks are projected to rise to 0.5 Mt, which is still a historically low level.

The average price is predicted to fall from the record level in 2021-22 to C$400/t, due to expectations for a recovery in domestic supplies. But it will remain historically high, largely underpinned by strong corn prices.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the 2022-23 barley production is lowered for the EU, mostly on forecast declines for Spain and France that are partially offset by an increase for Germany. Barley production for Australia and Ukraine is reduced based on declines in area.

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