EU & UK: Barley production forecast down 0.2 mln tonnes this month
The EU 27+UK barley crop production forecast is at 58.9 mln tonnes this month, down 0.2 mln since the forecast of late November, but holding steady as focus turns to winter crop development, RMI Analytics reported earlier in December.
Conditions are favourable at the moment with a good early start to the growing season underway in winter crops, including barley. More or less average temperatures with slightly dry conditions are providing good early establishment of the crops. The prospects for a normal crop improve with a good start (and without severe winter cold). At present, normal yield and quality should be a reasonable expectation, the RMI analysts believe.
Spring barley planted in autumn continues to gain favour as climate conditions are tending to be milder during winter. Farmers are willing to take the weather risk in exchange for a better yield potential and earlier harvest, while retaining the spring malting barley premium for approved varieties.
In the UK, the winter crop planting went well, with a higher area sown estimated at +3%, which increases pressure on spring barley to hold area. Early forecasts for spring barley area are for it to be down 6-8% but high prices may moderate that reduction.
Scandinavia barley is facing a similar problem as in other regions where strong competition from rapeseed (canola) and winter wheat, and places further challenges for gaining spring barley area.
In the Black Sea, severe weather delays are slowing export and causing terminals to back up with full storage.
Ukraine remains an active shipper to China but stocks are being drawn down dramatically.
In Russia, export duties (still being adjusted by government) are higher, quelling further trade.
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