World: Barley trade, production forecasts reduced in USDA’s August report
USDA’s August report puts the forecast of 2021/22 global barley trade at 33.072 mln tonnes versus 34.277 mln in the July report and 33.937 mln tonnes in 2020/21.
The export forecast is up for Australia (6.4 mln tonnes vs. 5.9 mln last month), Ukraine (5.8 vs. 5.2 mln), and the UK (1.1 mln vs. 1 mln tonnes) and down for Canada (2.7 mln tonnes from 4.5 mln in July), Russia (5 mln vs. 5.2), and Kazakhstan (800 thousand tonnes vs. 1.3 mln last month).
The barely import forecast is down for China (9.6 mln tonnes vs. 10.6 mln forecast in July), Iran (2 mln vs. 2.4) and up for Thailand (1.1 mln tonnes versus 1 mln in July) and Vietnam (600 thousand tonnes from 500 thousand forecast last month).
World barley production is forecast at 149.434 mln tonnes – down from last month’s forecast of 153.469 mln tonnes and 160.27 mln tonnes in 2020/21. Updated crop forecasts are: plus 500 thousand tonnes to 11 mln for Australia, minus 2.5 mln tonnes to 8.8 mln for Canada, minus 400 thousand tonnes to 54.4 mln tonnes for the EU, minus 1.2 mln tonnes to 2.5 mln tonnes for Kazakhstan, plus 380 thousand tonnes to 2.78 mln for Morocco, minus 400 thousand tonnes to 19 mln for Russia, minus 1.2 mln tonnes to 5 mln for Turkey, plus 125 thousand tonnes to 7.2 mln for the UK, and minus 19 thousand tonnes to 2.298 mln tonnes for the US.
Global barley consumption is forecast to total 153.275 mln tonnes in 2021/22 (vs. 156.229 mln tonnes in the July report and 160.755 mln in 2020/21), and the ending stocks are seen at 18.001 mln tonnes versus 18.819 and 21.842 mln tonnes, respectively.
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