North America: Weather threatening to cause huge damage to Canada and US barley crops

June barley acreage estimates are 3.36 mln tonnes vs. 3.06 mln ha a year ago for Canada and 1.05 mln ha for the U.S., virtually unchanged from last year, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their July report.

Saskatchewan planted 18.7%, Alberta 5.6% more barley this year. But drought, extreme heat and strong winds threaten to damage and even destroy the crops in the Canadian Prairies and the northern U.S. barley states. Southern Alberta, south-western Saskatchewan, and North Dakota are the worst affected regions. Private estimates have reduced the Canadian barley crop from 12.5 to 11.0 mln tonnes, and minimum 25% yield losses are forecast for North Dakota. Weather forecasts remain hot and dry for the first weeks of July.

Canadian exports of old crop barley in August-May 20/21 were 3.6 mln tonnes, of which 3.4 mln to China. New crop sales are 1.6 – 2.0 mln tonnes so far, it is expected that they will hardly rise above 2.5 mln tonnes in the new campaign.

Farmers, of course, abstain from selling until harvest time. Feed barley traded, Sept/Nov, Lethbridge, at C$295 per tonne (US$240). Feeders in Alberta and shippers from Vancouver scramble for supplies. Maltsters will face very possible quality deficits of the Canadian and U.S. crops, causing high quality premiums, the analysts said.

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