World: Weakish tendency on futures markets in June changed by USDA’s grain stocks and acreage report

June futures markets were excessively volatile, with an apparent weakish tendency, H. M. Gauger GmbH reported earlier this month.

The USDA grain stocks and acreage report of June 30 changed the trend, as soybeans gained US$0.80/bushel, corn US$0.40/bushel, and wheat US$0.33/bushel in one session. Corn and bean figures were dramatically lower (stocks and acres) than expected.

Old crop stocks are too tight to allow for a reasonable change-over from old to new crop. The American trade believes that high market prices will be needed to ration demand, in the U.S. and in the world. Neither acreage nor spring/summer weather allow for the assumption that the S/D picture will improve much in 2021/22. Wheat and barley will gain from firm corn markets, provided regular harvests, the analyst said.

In erratic markets farmers are not sellers, industries not buyers. Fundamentals have started to change in two ways: 1) Feed and food industries (especially China) have diversified their raw material acquisition and usage. 2) Crop prospects are good in East and West Europe and the southern hemisphere. But the Brazilian safrinha maize crop looks poor, so do spring wheat and barley in the northern U.S. and Canadian Prairies. Weather has always been a market factor, but it is a vital element in a year of grain deficits.

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