Canada: Barley production in 2020-21 totalled 10.7 mln tonnes, final survey shows

For 2020-21, Canadian farmers produced 10.7 million tonnes of barley, according to Statistics Canada (STC)’s final 2020 production survey. This number is 5% larger than reported in STC’s September model-based report, and 3% and 23% larger than the level of last year and the previous five-year average, respectively.

At 11.8 mln tonnes, total supply has reached a ten year high.

Western Canada reported its best volume in more than a decade. Beneficial hot and dry weather
conditions at the end of the growing season in much of the prairie region, the top barley producing area in Canada, allowed for a higher area harvested and better yields.

Barley production in Alberta, the top barley producing province, is 7% and 23% larger than the prior-year’s level and the previous five-year average.

For Saskatchewan, barley production dropped slightly from last year but is 27% larger than the previous five-year average.

For Manitoba, barley production is up 30% from last year and up 29% from the previous five-year average.

In contrast, barley production in Eastern Canada, including Ontario and Quebec, as well as in Atlantic provinces, is 16%, 16% and 19% below September estimates, last year's level and the previous five-year average, respectively.

For the first four months of the crop year (from August to November), Canadian barley exports
totaled almost 1.3 mln tonnes, more than twice that of the same period last year, according to weekly statistics reported by Canadian Grain Commission (CGC). For the entire crop year, Canadian barley exports, including grain and products, are expected to be 3.4 mln tonnes, 11% higher than last year.

Domestic use is expected to decline, mainly due to lower feed consumption in anticipation of a reduction in the backlog of livestock and good supplies of alternative feed grains. Industrial use is expected to recover, but will be lower than the level in 2018-19.

Owing to larger supplies, carry-out stocks are expected to be up 25% and 18% from last year and the previous three-year average, respectively.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to rise by 6% from 2019-20 to C$245/tonne, as a result of strong export sales and solid domestic use.

The USDA revised up the 2020-21 world barley production by 0.8 mln tonnes in its December WASDE release, compared to its November estimates, due to higher production in Australia and Canada offsetting lower production in the EU. Driven by strong imports from China and Saudi Arabia, the demand in the global trade market was revised up by more than 1.0 mln tonnes, which indicates strong demand in these countries. World ending stocks were revised lower, but still 2% higher than last year, with most of the increase located in major importing countries, such as China and Saudi Arabia.

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