Canada: 2019/20 barley exports decrease to 3 mln tonnes

For 2019-20, Canadian barley exports decreased slightly from 2018-19 to 3.0 million tonnes. Exports of barley malt fell by 8% to 0.7 mln tonnes while exports of barley grain remained stable at 2.3 mln tonnes. The main destination countries were China, Japan, the US, and Mexico, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their October report.

Total domestic use increased by 27% from the prior year to 7.3 mln tonnes on a sharp rise in feed use. Carry-out stocks increased by 11% from the historical low level in 2018-19, to about 1.0 mln tonnes, the second lowest level on record.

In the October 6th supply and demand updates, STC raised barley industrial use for 2018-19 to 301 thousand tonnes from 98 thousand. The increased volume was balanced by the deduction in 2018-19 feed use.

For 2019-20, the industrial use was raised to 259 thousand tonnes from 114 thousand, reflecting a drop of 14% from the revised volume for the previous year. The 2019-20 feed use was trimmed down by nearly 200 Kt from the September estimate. The 2019-20 exports were raised marginally. Carry-in stocks remained unchanged.

For 2020-21, Canadian barley production is estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) to decrease by 1% from 2019-20 to 10.3 mln tonnes, on expectations for a slightly higher area harvested, despite estimates for lower average yields. If materialized, the production would be 17% above the previous five-year average.

Combined with higher carry-in stocks, Canadian barley supply is forecast at 11.3 mln tonnes.

Exports are expected to continue to be strong throughout the year, totalling 3 mln tonnes.

Domestic use is expected to fall to 7.151 mln tonnes, mainly due to lower feed use, despite a recovery in industrial use.

Carry-out stocks are expected to rise to 1.1 mln tonnes as a result of higher supplies and lower demand, but still be 17% lower than the previous five-year average.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to drop by 5% from 2019-20 to C$220/tonne, due to ample domestic and world supplies.

World barley supply for 2020-21 is anticipated to increase by 1% to 203 mln tonnes due to increased output from Australia, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Combined barley supplies from the Black Sea regions and the EU are expected to fall due to a sharp drop in Ukrainian supplies. Argentina is expected to produce less barley in 2020-21. Total demand around the world is forecast to expand on higher feed consumption, as well as industrial use. World carry-out stocks are expected to rise by 5% to a recent four-year high; the majority of the increase is located in the world’s major exporters.

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