Canada: Barley malt exports down, barley shipments remain stable in 2019-20

For 2019-20, Canada exported 3.0 million tonnes of barley, including exports of barley malt and barley grain, which is slightly lower than the year-earlier level, as reported by STC. Exports of barley malt fell by 8% to 0.7 mln tonnes while exports of barley grain remained stable at 2.3 mln tonnes, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its September report.

Total domestic barley use increased by 28% from the prior year to 7.3 mln tonnes, largely due to a sharp rise in feed use.

Carry-out stocks rose by 11% from the historical low level in 2018-19 to about 1.0 mln tonnes, the second lowest level on record.

For 2020-21, Canadian barley production is estimated by STC to decrease by 1% from 2019-20 to 10.3 mln tonnes, as the slightly higher area harvested is expected to be more-than offset by lower average yields. The drop in production is mainly caused by a lower barley production estimate for Saskatchewan, the second leading barley grower in Canada, as the average yield for this province is estimated to fall by 9%, along with a reduction of 2% in area harvested. If materialized, the production number for this province is still 15% above the previous five-year average.

Combined with higher carry-in stocks, Canadian total supply is expected to drop only slightly to 11.3 mln tonnes, experts believe.

Exports are forecast to continue to strengthen during the year. Domestic use is expected to fall mainly due to lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise as a result of higher supplies and lowered demand.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to drop by 10% from 2019-20 due to strong domestic and world supplies.

World barley production for 2020-21 is anticipated to increase due to much improved production prospects for Russia, which, combined with increased carry-in stocks, make the world total supply near another record level, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Total demand around the world is forecast to expand on higher feed consumption, as well as industrial use. World carry-out stocks are expected to rise by 6% to recent to a four-year high.

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