12 January, 2020

World: Global barley trade forecast increased in USDA’s January report

USDA’s first Grain: World Markets and Trade report this year pegs the 2019/20 global barley trade forecast at 28.778 mln tonnes, up from 28.078 mln forecast in December and 25.63 mln tonnes forecast for 2018/19.

Export forecast is up for the EU (+500 thousand tonnes to 6.5 mln tonnes) on faster pace of trade per EU Customs Surveillance), Ukraine (+200 thousand ton 5 mln on anticipated export opportunities in the Middle East), and Argentina (+200 thousand tonnes to 3.2 mln on larger shipments to the Middle East).

Import forecasts are increased for China (+200 thousand tonnes to 6.5 mln on smaller than expected local production) and Turkey (+600 thousand tonnes to 700 thousand on expectations of filling the duty-free quota amid high prices in the domestic market).

World barley production forecast is slightly down this month (156.049 mln tonnes vs 156.799 mln tonnes in December and 138.696 mln tonnes in 2018/19). Production forecast is reduced for Australia (8.2 mln tonnes vs 8.4 mln last month).

Total consumption is seen at 152.841 mln tonnes in 2019/20 (152.967 mln in December, 140.319 mln in 2018/19), and ending stocks at 20.97 mln tonnes (21.924 and 17.762 mln tonnes, respectively).

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