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CASTLE MALTING NEWS in partnership with www.e-malt.com Danish
21 July, 2019



Barley news Canada: 2018-19 barley exports at an all-time high since 2008

For 2018-19, Canadian barley exports are estimated to increase from last year and reach 3 mln tonnes - an all-time high since 2008 - thanks to the steady pace of barley grain and malt exports, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its July report.

Total domestic use is expected to decrease to 5.764 mln tonnes from 6.005 mln in 2017/18, primarily due to reduced feed use, the experts said.

Carry-out stocks are expected to fall to the lowest level ever of 0.9 mln tonnes.

The average feed barley price in Lethbridge feedlots is expected to reach a record high of C$280/t, mainly due to limited supply and relatively strong demand.

Concerns about 2019 production prospects for new barley and hay crop, as well as problems about pasture development, also supported feed barley prices. The average Prairie malt barley price is 17-24% higher than last year.

Global barley production for 2018-2019 is estimated at its lowest level in six years, mainly due to a significant decline in production of the world's major exporting countries, according to USDA. World trade is expected to decline only slightly despite limited supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to be close to the lowest level in history, including a sharp decline in major exporters. As a result, world feed barley prices have been very high. Therefore, corn has been used as an alternative crop for feed barley in some countries because of its relatively low prices and abundant supply around the world.

For 2019-20, the area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to increase by 14% from 2018-19 to almost 3.0 million hectares, due to strong barley price and its historically low carry-in stocks; in addition, current issues with Canadian canola trade may also have contributed to the increase in barley acreage. The provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan accounted for most of the increase.

Using average yield and average abandonment rate for harvested area, production is expected to increase to 9.654 mln tonnes and largely offset the decline in carry-in stocks; therefore, a large barley supply is expected for this year (10.594 mln tonnes).

Exports for 2019-20 are forecast to be unchanged due to production recoveries in the world major exporters and a return to normal trade patterns, despite a rise in domestic supply.

Total domestic use is expected to rise to 6.094 mln tonnes due to higher feed use.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase significantly, mainly owing to higher supply (to 1.5 mln tonnes).

The average price of feed barley in Lethbridge feedlots for 2019-20 is projected to decrease slightly from 2018-19 due to higher supply expected for 2019-20. Supportive factors include rising US corn prices expected for 2019-20 and concerns about production prospects for new barley and hay crops, as well as worries about pasture development across the Prairie Provinces. 2019 barley planting progress was well above normal due to dry weather, but sufficient and steady rainfall is required to improve soil moisture, promote crop growth, and maintain average yield.

World barley production for 2019-20 is projected to rise to its highest level in ten years, largely due to improved output from the world’s major exporters, according to USDA. World trade is projected to rise on higher supply. Deliveries to Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco are expected to increase. World carry-out stocks are expected to increase to the highest level in the recent three years but remain low.





Tilbage



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