Australia: Barley, wheat, canola crop forecasts up from initial estimates

Australia is forecast to product 33.7 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat, 14.5Mt of barley and 6.4Mt of canola, according to estimates released today in ABARES’ quarterly Australian Crop Report.

All three figures are up from initial estimates of 30.56Mt for wheat, 12.81Mt for barley and 5.71Mt for canola released in ABARES’ previous report released June 3.

After a dry and late start to the cropping season in South Australia, western Victoria and southern New South Wales, above-average July rainfall in SA and Vic, and follow-up rain in August has provided enough moisture for crop emergence and establishment.

Although crops in south-eastern Australia are 3-4 weeks late, ABARES has described potential as positive.

With the exception of SA canola, all estimates listed below have been revised up, and ABARES has forecast the entire national crop, including pulses and oats, at 62Mt, the third-largest on record.

“Rainfall in southern New South Wales has not been as favourable with crops receiving just enough
to maintain growth,” ABARES said in the report, adding that further rainfall would be crucial for current yield potential to be realised.

“By contrast, conditions have been favourable in Western Australia, Queensland, and northern NSW, reflecting timely rainfall that has maintained soil-moisture profiles.

“These conditions have placed crops in an excellent position heading into spring.”

According to the Bureau of Meteorology rainfall outlook for September to November issued August 21, a 65-80 percent chance exists that spring rainfall will be above average across cropping regions in Qld and NSW, above the 55-70pc chance seen for Vic and SA.

In contrast, cropping regions in WA have a 35-50pc chance of receiving above-average rainfall.

“This generally favourable spring rainfall outlook, if realised, is expected to support crop development and boost yield potential.”