Argentina: Barley crop forecast stable amid generally favourable conditions this year

More rainfall has fallen across Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, which leaves nearly 20% of the Argentina barley crop to seed. The forecast is clearing, which should support the wrapping up of planting toward the end of the normal seeding window, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

The crop is slightly later than normal, but comfortable moisture levels should promote good early crop development.

Under this generally favourable view, RMI’s barley production forecast for Argentina remains at 4.8 mln tonnes. Exports are expected to remain steady, leaving ending stocks only slightly higher than in 2024.

Barley prices are stronger, led by buying interest for feed barley and a risk premium for any remaining crop’24 malting barley quality. Farmer selling is low, as delayed soybean and corn harvests are the current focus.

Export licences for crop’24 at 2.9 mln tonnes are ahead of crop’23, led by feed barley. Total crop’24 farmer sales are ca. 4.3 mln tonnes.