Australia: Analysts maintain barley crop forecast for 2025 at 12.3 mln tonnes

Looking ahead to crop’25, with seeding plans being developed, the moisture situation has improved on the east-coast and in Western Australia. The major increase to Western Australia production in crop’24 is unchanged for crop’24 at 13.0 mln tonnes, and the forecast for barley crop’25 remains at 12.3 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics said in their late March report.

Export levels are slightly higher due to the very strong start to 2025 barley export shipments, mainly to China.

Prices are softer, more so for malting barley, as feed is holding stable at the moment. China is reportedly having a steady bid in the market, indicating the good outflow of barley (mainly feed/FAQ) is likely to be maintained. Meanwhile, the slide in malting barley prices is narrowing the malting premium to rather low levels. At this stage, there is little change expected in crop’25 planted area but the longer-term risk is a potential shift to higher yielding feed varieties.