France: Farm office lowers soft wheat, barley exports forecast

The French farm office FranceAgriMer has lowered its forecast for French soft wheat exports to outside the European Union by 2024/25, a record low in this century. This is due to a slow demand from overseas for a French crop that was reduced by rain, Marine Link reported on February 12.

In its monthly outlook on supply and demand, the office estimated that French soft wheat exports outside the EU for this season would be 3.4 million tons. This was down from the January projection of 3.5 million, which was the lowest volume recorded in the records of the office going back to 1996/97.

The decline in French wheat exports is attributed to a poor French harvest, stiff Russian competition and a lack of demand from Algeria and China.

The revised forecast is 67% lower than last season.

FranceAgriMer officials said that while Russia's implementation for an export quota will allow other suppliers to compete, the French prospects are still limited due to its small harvest and lack of competitiveness.

Habasse Diagouraga said that FranceAgriMer, the grain analyst in the office, saw a potential for French soft wheat exports to Morocco between 1 and 1.5 million tonnes, compared with 2.8 million tons in 2023/24.

The office has raised its forecasts for French soft wheat exports within the EU to 6,24 million tons, up from 6.14 million last month. This is now close to the volume of 6.29million tons in 2023/24.

Soft wheat stocks were expected to be 2.81 million tonnes at the end season on 30 June, compared to 2.90 million last month. This reflects a reduction in the harvest supply.

Stocks forecast were now 12% lower than last season.

Barley end-of-season stocks have been reduced to 1,56 million tons, down from 1.61 million last month.

FranceAgriMer has raised its forecast for barley exports to outside the EU to 2 million tonnes from 1.9 million, partially reversing an 200,000 tonne reduction made in January. Diagouraga pointed to a rise in loading for destinations such as Morocco and Jordan.

The forecast maize stocks for 2024/25 remained unchanged at 2,77 million tonnes. A reduced estimate of the harvest supply offset a lower feed forecast.