World: 2025 barley crop forecast at 145.1 mln tonnes

RMI Analytics’ barley production forecast for 2025, at 145.1 mln tonnes, continues to anticipate a rebound over crop’24 at 141.8 mln tonnes.

According to the analysts, in order to achieve this increase, two key hurdles must be attained:

1) Planted area holds steady globally, knowing that European spring barley area is set to decline; 2) Yields recover slightly as improvements in Australia (South Australia and Victoria), parts of Russia, and Canada return to long-term average yields.

With those key inputs in place, global production remains below global demand by 1.5 mln tonnes. Feed demand is forecast to increase by 1.0 mln tons (e.g. Canada moves off US corn and back to local feed barley). Malting demand is to decline further in crop’25, despite an expected rebound at some stage.

The decline in barley exports from the EU-27 persists, with crop’24 significantly trailing behind the three prior crop years. This situation reflects the weak demand climate affecting the entire global market, especially for malting barley. Meanwhile, feed barley is receiving a boost due to dry weather in Argentina, wet conditions in Brazil, and increased corn exports from the US.

Ending stocks are continuing to decline to the lowest level in 12 years, but for farmers this tightness in supply is not visible in barley prices.