Australia: Barley crop expected to be up in 2025 if area planted is maintained or even increased

As barley harvest is mostly wrapped up for crop’24 in Australia, focus shifts toward the prospects surrounding crop’25. Although early, the moisture received over the past month have helped in building soil moisture levels ahead of crop’25. On the presumption planted area is maintained or even increases marginally, 2025 barley production rebounds by 0.6 mln tonnes to 12.5 mln tonnes, led by a recovery in South Australia and Victoria, while Western Australia and New South Wales slip back a bit, RMI Analytics said in their late January report.

A classic post-harvest price rally is underway, as farmer selling is reduced, while export shipments remain brisk, in Western Australia particularly, leading prices higher. Price strength is reportedly in the immediate shipping period, with Saudi showing interest for feed barley; however, for deferred shipment prices are quoted at lower levels. From an origin perspective, Western Australia’s good crop result maintains their export market leadership. The AUD has steadied recently as a China/US trade war has not erupted (yet).