Canada: 2023-24 barley supply estimated 8% lower year-over-year

For 2023-24, Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.7 million tonnes (Mt), down 8% year-over-year (y/y) and 6% below the previous five-year average, largely due to production issues in 2023, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its March report.

Total domestic use is forecast at 5.9 Mt, down slightly y/y and 4% below the average, as a result of a decline in feed use. Exports are predicted at 2.8 Mt, down noticeably from last year and the average, primarily reflecting lower expected exports of barley grain, with China, the US, Japan, and Mexico as the main destinations. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.0 Mt, up sharply from 2022-23’s low of 0.7 Mt and the average of 0.8 Mt.

The feed barley cash price in the Lethbridge, Alberta, feedlot region has experienced a downtrend since the start of the crop year and continued to decline in February, averaging below C$280/tonne (/t) at the time of writing, representing a three-year low. This has consequently brought the crop year to-date average down to below C$335/t. For the entire 2023-24 crop year, the average Lethbridge barley price is projected at C$310/t, lower than the highs seen in the previous two years.

Worldwide, global barley supply for 2023-24 will be the lowest in five years, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Global demand for animal feed is also expected to fall to a five-year low, but demand for food, seed and industrial (FSI) use will rebound y/y and be slightly above the five-year average. World ending stocks are projected to close to an all-time low. Compared to the February projections, the USDA’s March projections include downward forecasts for global production and feed consumption and upward forecasts for trade, FSI, and ending stocks.

For 2024-25, Canadian barley area is projected at 2.9 million hectares (Mha), according to STC’s March 11 seeding projections for the 2024-25 growing season. This represents a drop of 3% in area y/y and 5% below the previous five-year average, possibly because of lower exports and strong competition from other crops. By province, Alberta, the largest barley production province, is projected to seed 1,494 thousand hectares (Kha) of barley (-4% y/y), Saskatchewan 1,127 Kha (-1% y/y), Manitoba 160 Kha (-4% y/y), with the remainder seeded across Canada.

Production is forecast to increase by 7% y/y to 9.5 Mt, supported by an assumed return to normal yields. The expected increases in production and carry-in stocks will more than offset lower imports and push supply up by 9% to 10.5 Mt, which is 2% above the average. Total domestic use is forecast to rise due to increased supply and higher feed use. Exports are projected to remain stable due to strong competition from major barley exporting countries, despite an expected increase in supply. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.3 Mt, up 30% y/y and 66% above the average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast at C$295/t, down C$15/t y/y and the lowest in four years.

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