Australia: Barley harvest continues with generally positive results
Barley harvest continues in some parts of Australia but the results are generally positive as weather has been favourable, RMI Analytics reported on January 13.
Limited rains impacting harvest have helped achieve the best quality outcome possible. CBH has reported the largest crop tonnage in over 90 years in Western Australia, with over 22 mln tonnes handled (all crops), topping the 2021 record at 21.4 mln tonnes.
As a result, RMI Analytics’ barley crop 2022 estimate is raised to 13.6 mln tonnes, and represents the 3rd highest production on record. Ending stocks continue to climb after three large barley crops. Looking ahead, the production forecast for crop 2023 is down to 10.88 mln tonnes, as continued strong competition from wheat and canola challenges the ability for barley to maintain planted area.
Australian barley prices are lower, under the weight of the big crop, particularly in Western Australia as noted above.
Trade relations between China and Australia might be thawing as meetings are taking place between foreign ministers from each country. China is already resuming coal shipments from Australia, with barley and wine specific topics discussed during recent meetings. If the barley tariffs were to be dropped, export terminal capacity is fully booked until March. An eventual resumption in 2023 of barley shipments to China would have wide ranging implications. Arrival of new demand would likely raise Australian prices, while offsetting price pressure would fall upon Canada, France, and Argentina, the analysts said.
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