Argentina: Barley crop forecast remains at 5.4 mln tonnes
Rainfall has arrived in Argentina, and most importantly, in the northern area of Cordoba/Santa Fe where conditions were seriously dry. Additional rain will still be needed to fix dryness issues. For now, the forecast for Argentina’s barley crop remains at 5.4 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.
Export licences for crop 2021 are stretching toward 3.7 mln tonnes, and a similar volume is forecast for crop 2022. To-date, only 920 thousand tonnes of licences are registered for crop 2022.
The ratio of FAQ versus malting barley shipments in 2021 was 67%/33% in favour of FAQ; so far in crop 2022, the ratio is 90%/10% towards FAQ. Farmer selling is 14% for crop 2022, down about 11% from last year.
Argentina barley prices are lower but reluctantly so, with the lack of farmer selling a factor. Surprisingly, inquiries are still being made (China) for a crop 2021 Panamax cargo. With stocks almost fully depleted, any likely execution would require collaboration from 3-4 sellers.
At the moment, buying interest is limited as world prices move lower, but demand will undoubtedly return in due course due to global needs, the analysts said.
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