USA: Barley crop small and with significant quality issues and high protein this year

As is typically the case, the U.S. crop this year was primarily driven by larger harvested areas and production in the big three states of Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota, which saw their share of American production decrease only slightly, going from 78.3 percent in 2020 to 75.9 percent in 2021, The New Brewer reported in its November/December edition.

Montana saw the largest drop in production, driven by lower harvested acres and yields, with its decreased production accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. decline. Both Idaho and North Dakota also saw decreased harvested acres and yields, but the declines were smaller than in Montana.

Idaho, still the national leader in production, saw only slight decreases in seeded and harvested acreage, meaning the total production decline was almost entirely due to lower yields. Total production was down 20.7 percent, or 11.4 million bushels, to 43.6 million bushels. Harvested acreage declined by only 10,000 acres, but that was offset by a 19.1-percent decrease in yields to 89 bushels an acre.

Montana again had the largest seeded and harvested acreage in the U.S. in 2019 at 940,000 acres and 625,000 acres respectively. Those numbers represented declines of 3 percent and 21 percent, meaning harvested acres were down more sharply than seeded acres. Montana often underperforms compared with the total U.S. in harvested acres relative to planted acres, and 2021 was no exception, with only 66 percent of Montana acres being harvested versus 73 percent nationally. Decreased acres were exacerbated by yields that plummeted 40 percent to 38 bushels per acre, leading to total production of 23.8 million bushels. In all, amidst a year of challenges, the Montana crop bore the brunt of U.S. barley declines.

North Dakota actually saw a planted acreage increase, though harvested acres decreased slightly, with the percentage of planted acres harvested dropping from 87 percent to 74 percent. Total production in the state was down 24 percent to 21.9 million bushels. Yields dropped 19 percent to 61 bushels an acre.

Below the big three states, 20 other states were listed on the Small Grains 2021 summary (the same as in 2018–20), collectively covering 403,000 harvested acres and producing 28.3 million bushels, or a collective production larger than Montana and North Dakota combined. States outside the big three saw seeded acres decline by 11 percent and harvested acres by 13 percent, but because of the geographic dispersion of these states, they did not all experience the same heat or drought and saw yields that held up better than the big three. Yields were down 12 percent, bringing in a crop down 23 percent, or a decrease of 8.7 million bushels. Such a decrease is of course not ideal, but in comparison to the 44.5 million-bushel decrease in Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota, this smaller loss was needed as a backstop against larger total declines.

Wyoming yields in particular held up well, declining only 5 percent and moving into the number four production slot (6.4 million bushels, roughly static to 2020 on slightly increased acres).

One of the most geographically dissimilar states, Pennsylvania, saw yields up 5 percent, as the state moved into the seventh spot in total production. Colorado and Washington saw yield declines more in line with the big three (23 percent and 58 percent respectively) and both saw much smaller crops. Colorado produced 5.2 million bushels, down from 6.8 million in 2020, and Washington plummeted from 6.4 million to 2.7 million. It will be interesting to see whether the relative success in the Great Lakes and Eastern states leads to additional planting next year—Maine, Maryland, New York, and Virginia all saw yield increases.

In 2021, most barley growing regions saw a relatively cool spring in April and May. Through May, North Dakota and Idaho’s temperatures were similar to historical averages, while Montana’s were below average. That shifted for June and July, with June being the record warmest in Idaho, and “much above average” in North Dakota and Montana. All three states stayed much above average for July, finally returning to near average (Idaho and Montana) or above average (North Dakota) in August (source: NOAA). Looking at the total June-through August period, it was the warmest on record (back to 1895) in Idaho (average temperature); the second-warmest in Montana; and the third-warmest in North Dakota.

Similarly, statewide precipitation rank data from NOAA shows much-below-average precipitation for May through July, with June in particular a very low precipitation month: it was the second-driest on record in Montana, and fourth-driest in Idaho. In many areas, this phenomenon exacerbated existing drought conditions. The September 16 Idaho Grain Market Report describes barley farmer Pat Purdy leaving 250 acres dry for the first time ever—and by his account he had it better than some. “Now the good news is we still have some water,” Purdy reported. “There’re a lot of farmers who have zero water right now.” The acres left dry would normally be planted with malting barley destined for beer.

USDA reports show a crop that ran similar or ahead of 2020 in terms of progress (planting, emergence, and heading) but also one that was already showing significant quality issues as early as June and July as heat and drought set in. At the end of June, the five-state average showed 25 percent of the crop being “very poor” or “poor” versus only 4 percent in 2020, and only 39 percent “good” or “excellent” versus 75 percent the year before. The end of July report was similar, with very poor/poor rising to 42 percent and good/excellent dropping to 27 percent (versus 4 percent and 80 percent, respectively, in 2020).

The barley crop was harvested a bit earlier than it had been in 2020. The September 5 update showed 92 percent of the crop harvested (compared to 87 percent in 2016–19, and only 83 percent last year). The much smaller number of harvested acres may have helped speed along the harvesting timeline, and an early/on-time harvest (97 percent by September 12) was one of the few positives of an otherwise difficult and poor-quality crop.

In general, U.S. quality reports suggest not just a small crop, but one with significant quality issues and high protein. Gary Bailey, a farmer just on the Washington side of the Idaho border, is quoted in the September 2 Idaho Grain Market report as calling 2021 “probably the worst since I’ve been farming.” He’s been working his family farm for more than 30 years.

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