Argentina: Barley harvest begins with good outcome anticipated

Argentina’s barley harvest has begun with a good outcome anticipated, and RMI Analytics’ crop production forecast remains at 4.9 mln tonnes.

A bit concerning is the heavy rains occurring over the past two weeks across the region. For Argentina, the recent rains set up a risk of pre-germination and there is further rain in the forecast for the next 2-3 days. If that is the extend of rain and the weather clear, the crop should avoid major pre-germination issues, the analysts said.

Still, the early harvest results in Argentina are positive with very good yields reported, with only a few minor sizing issues (variability in kernel calibration) and some lighter test weights reported.

Argentina’s barley prices have moved sharply higher, with malting barley jumping to USD355/tonne, FOB and FAQ at USD318/tonne. Not entirely surprising for Argentina shooting higher, as weather is less than ideal. Farmer selling is zero despite higher values offered, and a still strong export demand situation. No motivation for farmer selling until the crop is safely in storage. Sharply higher prices are closing the gap to French values and at some stage will be very interesting to farmers (just not yet).

Elsewhere with harvest nearly complete, quality issues are reported in Uruguay (variable sizing) and Brazil (pre-germination reported) raising potential further import needs in Brazil.

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