EU & UK: Barley crop forecast unchanged and importance of crop 2022 becomes increasingly more critical

The EU-27 + UK barley crop forecast is unchanged in RMI Analytics’ November report at 59.9 mln tonnes. With a stock/use ration dropping toward 10%, concerns regarding insufficient barley are building. As a consequence, the importance of crop 2022 is becoming increasingly more critical, from a total world perspective.

Record high agricultural input prices (e.g. fertilizer) should help barley gain a slight area increase in 2022, in the range of 1-2%, the analysts believe. As an indication, French winter barley planting progressed in the past two weeks with favourable weather. Under these good conditions, both high prices and input costs, barley should achieve this small increase in the EU area.

In the UK, the winter crop planting is also going well and on a schedule. An ongoing lack of trucks is having an impact on barley deliveries both for export and domestic markets, with higher freight rates for the grain that does move.

Danish barley market is currently quiet with a focus on existing current business, with little surplus left to trade.

In Ukraine, input costs in 2021 are reportedly 33.7% higher over the last year’s levels. Dry conditions are contributing to reduced winter crops planting (e.g. wheat) versus crop 2021.

In Russia, barley shipments in October were the lowest in eight years, illustrating the export duties are achieving their desired result. With market prices increasing, the duty levels will increase further for both barley and wheat.

The EU-27 + UK plus Ukraine’s and Russia’s crops situation for crop 2021 is very tight and although prospects for a slight increase in production in 2022 are good, a degree of tightness will extend into 2023, the analysts said.

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