World: Barley supply & demand forecast is mostly unchanged this month

The world barley supply & demand forecast is mostly unchanged this month, with only a slight increase in production to 148.2 mln tonnes (from 148 mln last month), RMI Analytics reported.

The increase comes from the good crop prospects in Australia where harvest is underway. There could be a further small increase coming in Australia or Argentina, the analysts said.

With a reduction of over 10 mln tonnes from crop 2020, the barley situation has shifted dramatically in just a few short months. Barley production had been performing very well in crops 2019-21 in terms of planted area and crop potential. In crop 2021 the issue has been primarily weather-related and the positive trend for barley should return in 2022, RMI Analytics believe.

Barley that is moving in non-traditional patterns (e.g. Danish to North America or Australia to Europe) is a clear signal that the barley market is trying to reconcile the dramatic impact of the crop 2021 reduction. A major disruption is Canadian production and increased pressure on other origins, like France, to meet global barley demand including China, where imports are already exceeding the full-year 2020 levels.

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