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CASTLE MALTING NEWS in partnership with www.e-malt.com Greek
19 October, 2021



Barley news Australia: Australia set for a second consecutive bumper winter harvest - Rabobank

Australia is set for a second consecutive bumper winter harvest, with total production forecast to come in just five per cent shy of last year’s near-record crop, according to Rabobank.

In its just-released ‘Australian Winter Crop 2021/22 Production, Price and Inputs Forecast’, the specialist agribusiness bank estimates the nation will harvest 52.87 million tonnes (Mt) of winter grains, oilseeds and pulses this season.

While down five per cent on last year’s crop, this is still a hefty 25pc above the five-year average.

Canola is the stand-out mover, with production estimated to reach a new record of 5.16Mt (up 14pc on last year and a stellar 48pc above the five-year average), driven by increased planting and favourable growing conditions in many regions.

Australia’s wheat production is expected to come in at 31.9Mt (down 4pc on last year, but still 35pc above the five-year average).

Barley production is forecast to be down 10pc on last year to 11.7Mt, though also still up on the five-year average by 7pc.

Report co-author, Rabobank agriculture analyst Dennis Voznesenski, said Australia’s second consecutive very large winter crop “comes at an opportune time for local growers, with global shortages and high prices for grains and oilseeds”.

“Short global supplies of grains and oilseeds will continue to support Australian prices over the year ahead,” he said.

“And although global prices can be expected to soften as new crops in different regions around the world come into play, the uncertainty that exists around seasonal conditions in grain-growing areas and the process of global grain stocks re-building will keep prices at least above the range of the last six to seven years.”

The report notes favourable growing conditions in Australia have seen expectations of increased amounts of high-protein wheat in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia this harvest – “timed perfectly” with a current global shortage of high-protein wheat, due to drought in North America.

Other factors of note for this year’s winter crop include a lower supply of malt-quality barley – due to a reduction in barley planting, and particularly malt varieties – and less grain baled for hay because of export concerns due to a largely-closed Chinese hay market.

“There is also a proportion of last year’s record east coast harvest – 10 to 15 per cent – that remains on farm,” Mr Voznesenski said.

“And this will compete with the coming crop for storage space and mean more delivery and price pressure during harvest.”

Rabobank forecasts Australia’s total grain exports to increase again this year – by 5pc year on year (YOY) and to include 24.5Mt of wheat, 7.8Mt of barley and 4.3Mt of canola.

“A second very large harvest means that Australia’s stocks will now be replenished after the drought so we will be able to lift exports in 2021/22 despite production coming in lower than last year,” Mr Voznesenski said.

“We expect Australia will again be able to deliver a strong export performance into South East Asia, with Australian wheat continuing to be the price setter across the region. This is due to lower prices in Australia as a result of the substantial surplus that will be available, but also favourable freight costs compared with grain from further afield – an advantage that increases in times of high-cost freight like we currently have and expect to continue in 2022.”

For Australian barley, while Rabobank does not expect China to return as a market “to a material degree even in the mid term”, the tight global corn market is set to support barley demand over the coming year.

“Prices will be supported as buyers, especially in South East Asia and the Middle East, continue to find good value in barley as a substitute for corn in livestock feeding,” Dr Kalisch Gordon said.

Local demand for feed barley is also expected to remain steady, with the number of cattle on feed in Australia remaining above one million head and demand for export beef staying buoyant, along with steadily growing demand from the poultry sector.

“Malt barley demand is also improving, with recovering beer demand globally as the world opens after COVID-19,” she said.

Local barley prices are forecast to appreciate marginally after harvest and in the first half of 2022, before softening at the back end of 2022, however remaining at above average.





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