World: Barley production forecast at 148.6 mln tonnes, slightly reduced from last month

World barley supply and demand forecast underwent only a small adjustment in RMI Analytics’ early October report, with production reduced to 148.6 mln tonnes from 148.7 mln in their previous report at the end of September.

Most of the northern hemisphere crop outcome is already widely known, and the southern hemisphere continues to track on a positive pathway, the analysts said.

Forecasts for global barley trade (31 mln tonnes) and use (151.7 mln tonnes) are unchanged with some doubt as to attaining those levels as current high prices will ration demand.

The overall barley crop 2021 volume is among the top 50 percentile over the past 20 years, yet prices continue to move toward all-time highs.

The biggest uncertainty at the moment is obtaining clarity on what barley quality is acceptable from crop 2021, certainly the situation will necessitate the maximum flexibility on specification tolerances. In the RMI Analytics experts’ view, brewers will make every reasonable effort to accept barley where possible. At the same time malting barley premiums will work to hold barley for potential malting barley selection.

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