EU & UK: Export surplus of spring malting barley forecast at around 600 thousand tonnes
Total EU and UK spring malting barley selection is forecast to reach 7.625 mln tonnes this year, H. M. Gauger GmbH reported earlier in September.
With demand forecast at 7.025 mln tonnes, this will leave approximately 600 thousand tonnes for export.
The demand for 2 and 6 row-winter barley varieties is forecast at 2.18 mln tonnes.
An S/D balance can only be speculative, the analysts point out. Apart from the usual alternatives, the acceptance of lower barley qualities, the maximum usage of winter barley, there is the risk of new corona lockdowns, but possibly also large barley exports.
One important fact is not yet part of the above balance: barley and malt stocks at the beginning of the new crop year are almost zero. The industry needs a 13 months’ supply from the crop 2021, but the question still remains whether it can it find additional 750,000 tonnes.
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