Canada: 2020-21 barley exports to increase significantly due to brisk exports to China

For 2020-21, total barley exports are expected to increase significantly from 2019-20 to 4.55 mln tonnes, primarily due to brisk barley grain exports to China, based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) monthly export data. For the August 2020 – June 2021 period, STC reported barley grain exports at 3.48 mln tonnes and malt exports at 0.51 mln tonnes, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its August report.

Barley imports for 2020-21 are expected to rise sharply from last year to 0.30 mln tonnes, largely due to increased feed demand in western provinces. For the August 2020 – June 2021 period, STC reported barley imports at 0.26 mln tonnes.

Total domestic use is anticipated to decrease from last year, mainly due to lower feed use.

Carry-out stocks are projected to decline sharply from last crop year to 0.5 mln tonnes, the lowest level on record. The stocks-to-use ratio is pegged at 4%, versus around 19% in normal years.

The 2020-21 average feed barley price in Lethbridge area increased to C$294/t, breaking the record level of C$279/t in 2012-13, due to the expected tight carry-out stocks, a pessimistic outlook about new crop production, and strong prices of other grains.

For 2021-22, Canadian producers seeded nearly 3.36 million hectares of barley in total, according to STC’s June seeded area survey. This is 10% higher than last year's level and the highest since 2009.

Extremely dry and hot weather in the western provinces continued to erode crop conditions. The expected Canadian barley yield and harvested area are further reduced from last month's estimates. The 2021 barley yield is projected at 2.48 tonnes/hectare (t/ha), which is 65% of the 5-year average, and close to 2.24 t/ha, the record low in 2002. The area to be harvested is projected at 3.0 million hectares, 7% higher than last year and the highest in thirteen years. However, the abandonment rate is expected to be higher than in normal years.

Production is pegged at 7.45 mln tonnes, 31% lower than last year and a seven-year low. This, coupled with historically low carry-in stocks, will result in a 33% reduction in total supply from the previous year, making it the lowest level on record. In response to the lower supplies, exports and feed demand are adjusted lower than last month’s estimates and are expected to decline sharply from last year.

Carry-out stocks are expected to break the record low level set in the previous year.

The average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is predicted to increase sharply from 2020-21, based on the projected sharply lower supply and carry-out stocks. The forecasts for stronger 2021-22 prices of other grains will also support Canadian barley prices.

According to the USDA’s August supply and demand report, US barley yield continues to slip, resulting in 2021 production being 36% lower than a year ago. Globally, 2021 barley productions in most exporting countries are forecast to decrease from a year ago. In contrast, production in Ukraine is projected to increase by more than 2.0 mln tonnes, followed by Argentina with an increase of 0.3 mln tonnes.

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