Canada: Barley and malt exports forecast for 2020-21 revised upwards
For 2020-21, Canadas combined exports of raw barley grain and grain equivalent of malt are revised upwards to 4.3 million tonnes (mln tonnes) on brisk grain exports and stable barley product exports, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said it its June report.
The Canadian Grain Commissions (CGC) weekly reports show barley grain exports for the August 1, 2020 May 30, 2021 period at more than 3.55 mln tonnes, 98% higher than the volume during the same period of a year ago. The barley export pace is expected to slow down for the remainder of the crop year as supplies dwindle.
Barley imports for 2020-21 are expected to rise sharply from last year to 0.27 mln tonnes, as strong demand for feed grain in western Canada, especially in Alberta, has resulted in surging barley imports.
Total domestic use is anticipated to decrease from last year, mainly due to lower feed use.
Carry-out stocks are projected to decline sharply from last crop year to 0.5 mln tonnes, the lowest level on record. The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 4% for 2020-2021, significantly below the previous 5-year average of 9%.
For the crop year to-date, the average feed barley price in Lethbridge sat at C$280/t, versus C$230/t for the same period last year. Feed barley prices in Lethbridge have been underpinned by heavy exports, which has raised concerns about the tightening of barley supplies for the rest of the crop year. In addition, persistent dryness has caused uncertainty over new crop production prospects on the Prairies, which has also underpinned feed barley prices. For the entire crop year, the feed barley price is expected to reach C$290/t, higher than the record level of C$279/t in 2012-13.
For 2021-22, the planned barley area in Canada is forecast at nearly 3.5 million hectares, the highest in twelve years, according to Statistics Canadas (STC) March 2021 seeding intentions report. Production is forecast to rise by 11% from 2020-21, based on the previous five-year average for the projected harvest rate and yields. Supply is anticipated to be the highest level in twelve years.
Canadian barley exports are anticipated to remain strong, but to be lower than the previous year.
Domestic use is anticipated to increase based on predictions for growth in feed consumption and
Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply due to ample supply.
The average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is forecast to decrease, based on the projection for
higher 2021-22 supply, compared to lower demand. However, the predicted higher US corn price for 2021-22 is expected to provide support for Canadian feed barley prices.
Worldwide, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has predicted expanded area and increased production in 2021-22 in major barley exporting countries, except Australia. Its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report indicates that the production outlooks in the EU and Ukraine have improved. As for China, the top barley importing country in the world in recent years, its demand for barley continues to be strong in 2021-22. As a result, Chinas imports of barley are anticipated to grow in 2021-22 and reach a record high level of 10.6 mln tonnes.
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