China: China still open for substantial malting barley imports - analysts
Exceptional food consumption after the corona crisis, a remarkable economic recovery, and fast rebuilding of the pig herds after the ASF crisis created a huge feed demand in China, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their latest report earlier this month.
Unchanged good crops and large reserve stock sales of corn, wheat and rice could not fill the demand holes. Tight supplies drove the Dalian maize market up to US$ 450,- per tonne. Soybean and grain imports have reached new highs. Estimates are that soybeans purchases will reach 110 mln tonnes, maize imports 30 mln tonnes, barley and sorghum 15 mln tonnes each during this crop year.
Only during the last week of January China ordered 6 mln tonnes of corn in the U.S., the crop year total is 18 tonnes by early February plus a large part of the 7.8 mln tonnes of U.S. corn sales registered for “unknown destinations“.
The EU shipped about 1.5 mln tonnes of crop 2020 barley to China to-date, meantime business has shifted to new crop positions; sales are estimated at 1.8- 2.0 mln tonnes and a strong interest continues.
Ukraine has exported 2.6 mln tonnes, their barley stocks are close to zero by now.
Canada has shipped and is loading 2.2 mln tonnes, estimates for the campaign’s sales are as high as 3 mln tonnes. New crop sales are 1.5 mln tonnes.
Registered export contracts from Argentina are 1.6 mln tonnes, a large part for China.
China’s “4-countries“ total of crop 2020 contracts will reach minimum 9 – 10 mln tonnes, the analysts believe. As to crop 2021 barley, Canada and France together have 3.5 mln tonnes in the books. China imports usually 3.5 mln tonnes of malting barley per year. All known purchases to-date, however, were feed barley. Therefore China must still be open for substantial malting barley imports in the second half of the year.
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