EU: Grain supply could tighten this season – Strategie Grains

Grain supply in Europe could tighten this season despite coronavirus lockdowns clipping demand, as barley exports continue to flow to China and wheat makes up for a shortfall in imported maize, Strategie Grains said.

In a monthly report, the analyst firm lowered its forecast of European Union and UK maize imports in 2020/21 by almost 2 million tonnes to just under 17 million tonnes, citing rising international prices due to a disappointing Ukrainian harvest and high Chinese demand.

Expected wheat imports were also lowered as Ukrainian wheat had similarly become less competitive in the EU, while more of the EU’s own crop was expected to be used in livestock feed instead of maize, Strategie Grains said.

The need to cover the EU’s feed requirements as less grain is imported was expected to tighten supply, even as a second round of lockdowns to contain the novel coronavirus were seen curbing consumption.

Forecast milling demand for wheat was lowered by 900,000 tonnes, while barley use for beer ingredient malt was revised down by 600,000 tonnes, Strategie Grains said, factoring in the loss of out-of-home eating and drinking demand.

The barley market was being pressured by sustained Chinese demand, and Strategie Grains increased its forecast for EU barley exports in 2020/21 by 400,000 tonnes to 7.4 million.

There was still a large barley surplus in Britain and Spain, but this was yet to reach the market, it added.

Forecast soft wheat exports from the EU plus Britain were trimmed to 24.3 million tonnes from 25 million in October, and EU wheat prices would need to keep losing competitiveness abroad to conserve adequate stocks in Europe, the firm said.

A rebound in EU wheat sowing, which Strategie Grains sees up 9%, and expectations of higher output in Russia next year could ease supply tensions by encouraging some demand to be pushed over into 2021/22 when the next harvest arrives, it added.

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