World: USDA increases forecast for world barley production, trade in 2019/20

Barley harvest is largely complete for Northern Hemisphere countries. Crops for Canada, the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine are larger than a year ago, contributing to sharply higher global production for 2019/20, the largest since 2008/09, USDA said on September 12.

Harvest in the Southern Hemisphere countries, mainly Argentina and Australia, is still a few months away, although Australia’s prospects are lowered this month. Prospects of large exportable supplies have already driven export prices down 25 percent ($60 per ton) from a year ago. Note the high prices for Australia are likely a function of current crop expectations.

Growth in import demand, nevertheless, is expected to be limited due to developments in the top importing countries. Saudi Arabia has been shifting away from feeding raw barley to using manufactured feed in feed rations to improve feed efficiency. China’s imports from its top supplier, Australia, have slowed down amid the ongoing antidumping investigation. Any growth in feed use in China will likely be constrained by animal losses from African Swine Fever.

Saudi Arabia and China combined account for 60 percent of global barley imports. Moreover, abundant supplies of corn in the global market will also heighten competition in feed demand, as corn is priced much lower than feed barley and generally considered to be of higher energy value in feed rations.

According to USDA’s September forecast, world barley trade could total 28.108 mln tonnes in 2019/20, up from 25.679 mln tonnes in 2018/19 and from 27.808 mln tonnes forecast for 2019/20 last month.

Total barley production is expected at 154.072 mln tonnes vs. 139.551 mln in 2018/19 and 152.288 mln tonnes in the August forecast for 2019/20.

Barley consumption is seen at 151.021 mln tonnes (vs 140.943 mln in 2018/19 and 150.407 mln tonnes in the August forecast for 2019/20), and ending stocks at 21.006 mln tonnes (vs. 17.955 and 19.571 mln tonnes, respectively).

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