Canada: Barley output forecast 4% higher in 2018/19

For 2018-19, Canada’s barley-seeded area is forecast to increase by 13% from last year’s record low of 2.334 mln ha, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its latest report on October 19.

Production is forecast to increase 4% to 8.2 million tonnes (Mt) due to the higher harvested area, despite a below average total yield.

Due to sharply lower carry-in stocks, total supply is forecast to decrease by 5% to 9.5 Mt.

Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 3% to 6.148 Mt due to slightly higher feed and industrial use.

Exports are expected to decrease by 17% to 2.4 Mt due to lower total supplies.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 20% to a near record-low level of 1.0 Mt.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to average 15% higher than 2017-18.

The average barley yield in Canada is estimated to be below the previous three and five-year averages. Compared to the August 31 survey-based estimate, the model-based estimate increased barley production by 235,000 tonnes or 3%.

Since the beginning of the crop year, feed barley has been moving into the Alberta elevator system at a premium to feed wheat. The price outlook remains good since many regions of the Prairies had limited forage and pasture growth, due to the dry conditions which reduced hay supplies, and supported the demand for feed barley.

For US barley, the USDA released their Stocks and Small Grains Summary. This report showed that US barley production increased by 8% from the 2017-18 crop year mainly due to slightly higher harvested area and yields. Note that the 2017 barley crop was the smallest ever recorded in the US. Total US barley stocks declined and are 3% lower than September 1, 2017. In the September WASDE report, the USDA increased its 2018-19 US farm gate barley price to US$4.70/bushel (bu) versus US$4.60/bu for 2017-18 and US$4.47/bu for the previous year.

Lower barley production, among the major exporting countries, has reduced supply to a multi-decade low. This continues to provide price support for feed and malt barley. Last crop year, the world average feed barley price traded at a premium to corn and this spread continued to widen and it is now at a 10-year high. Since August 2017, the average world FOB feed barley price has gained US$1.30/bu or US$60/t to-date. With smaller barley crops, especially in Australia and the EU, the premium for malting barley relative to feed barley remains above the previous five-year average.

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