UK: Barley production seen 11% higher at 7.36 mln tonnes this year
Defra’s first estimate of 2017 UK barley production is 7.360 mln tonnes, up 11% on 2016. The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey suggested that the GB barley area would increase by 5% this year, driven by continued popularity of spring drilling, as well as spring barley being planted as a replacement for previously lost oilseed rape crops last winter.
Opening stocks are estimated at 1.121 mln tonnes, 18% down on last year and imports are expected to return to more typical levels, currently forecast at 140 thousand tonnes. Total available supplies are forecast at 8.621 mln tonnes, 6% higher year on year.
The UK’s human & industrial barley consumption is forecast to remain similar to last year, at 1.880 mln tonnes, with no major changes expected for the sector.
According to the second provisional CQS results, specific weights are estimated to be largely similar on last year, at 64.5kg/hl, with screening values suggesting a slightly larger grain size. At a GB level, nitrogen content is estimated higher on the year, at 1.68%, whilst nitrogen content for Scottish supplies is lower, at 1.53%. So, there could be higher demand for Scottish barley, depending on the final crop size.
Animal feed usage is forecast to increase by 3% year on year, to 3.965 mln tonnes. Higher demand from all livestock sectors is expected this season and the current price relationship between wheat and barley improves the economics of barley inclusions in feed rations for certain diets (e.g. pig and ruminant feed). In particular, increased usage of barley was seen at the beginning of the season as a result of the lower availability of wheat.
The balance of availability and domestic consumption of barley in the UK is 2.551 mln tonnes, 374 thousand tonnes (17%) higher than in 2016/17. The estimated operating stocks requirement is 10 thousand tonnes higher on the year, at 770 thousand tonnes, meaning the surplus available for either export or free stock is 1.781 mln tonnes, 364 thousand tonnes (26%) higher year on year.
Wstecz
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