Canada: Barley area, production forecast to increase in 2018/19

For 2018-19, barley-seeded area in Canada increased by 13% from last year’s record low level of 2.334 mln ha, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their November report.

Production is estimated to increase to 8.2 million tonnes due to the higher harvested area, despite a below-average total yield.

With higher production and sharply lower carry-in stocks, total supply is forecast to decrease by 5% to 9.5 mln tonnes.

Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 3% to 6.148 mln tonnes due to slightly higher feed and industrial use.

Exports are forecast to decrease by 17% to 2.4 mln tonnes due to lower total supplies.

Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 20% to 1.0 mln tonnes or near record low levels.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to increase moderately from 2017-18, the analysts said.

In Western Canada, the barley harvest is mostly complete as good weather allowed the harvest to progress rapidly in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Barley in Manitoba, and the early harvested crop in Alberta and Saskatchewan, is generally of good quality. Due to the late harvest, the availability of competing feed grain is also above average, especially all wheat. Lower supplies of quality feed barley will mean the continued importation of US based corn and distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) as the large commercial feedlots are very quality-conscious for their rations. The feedlots will bypass the poorer quality, low bushel weight feed grains.

Similar to feed barley, the quality of the malting barley is variable. The extensive summer heat increased the protein content of the crop and lowered the weight of the crop, depending on the date of maturity and area. To the first half of November, the Lethbridge spot feed barley prices have been about 24% higher than last year and Prairie malt prices have been 10-15% higher than last year.

The International Grains Council is reporting world barley stocks at 23-year lows as nearly all of the world major producers and exporters have had smaller crops and, in many cases, of less than standard qualities. World prices for feed barley have been very strong compared to FOB corn prices. To-date for this crop year, the average price for feed barley has been at a US$75/tonne (t) premium to the world average FOB corn price, the highest in the last 10 years. For 2018-19, with large world corn supplies, the price of feed barley is relatively high and consuming countries will seek alternatives. Lower world supplies of malting barley and especially quality malt is also pushing these prices higher.

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