World: Barley trade forecast slightly up in this month’s USDA report

World barley trade is expected to total 28.7 mln tonnes in 2018/19 versus 28.47 mln forecast last month, USDA said in its August report.

World barley trade in 2017/18 is estimated at 28.281 mln tonnes.

For 2018/19, barley export forecast is reduced for the EU (-800 thousand tonnes to 6 mln tonnes on a smaller crop) and increased for Ukraine (+1 mln tonnes to 4.5 mln due to a larger than expected output).

For 2017/18, the estimate for barley exports is up for Russia (+200 thousand tonnes to 5.6 mln) and down for the EU (-500 thousand tonnes to 5.7 mln tonnes on trade pace to-date) and Ukraine (-200 thousand tonnes to 4.3 mln).

World barley production is forecast to reach 144.371 mln tonnes in 2018/19 (down from 144.627 mln tonnes forecast in July but higher than 144.259 mln tonnes harvested in 2017/18). Total consumption is seen at 145.599 mln tonnes (145.924 mln last month and 148.245 mln tonnes in 2017/18), whereas ending stocks are forecast at 17.819 mln tonnes vs. 17.786 and 19.047 mln tonnes, respectively.

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