Canada: Barley use in 2017/18 forecast to increase 7%

For 2017-18, Canada’s total domestic barley use is forecast to increase 7% to 6.288 mln tonnes with higher feed and industrial use, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its July report.

Total barley exports are forecast to increase by 22% or to a 10-year high of 2.825 mln tonnes due to the steady total supply, strong export to China and lower world barley supplies.

Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 53% to 1.0 million tonnes, to be the second lowest on record.

The higher than expected new crop Canadian barley area estimate will soften prices in the near term however stocks will remain on the tight side. Old crop values will remain very good compared to the same time last crop year, the Ministry of Agriculture said.

US producer stocks are only 2% lower than last year but commercial stocks are 14% lower. Total US barley stocks are lower but not by a large amount and the remaining stocks are almost entirely of malt quality. Total North American stocks are lower and it will take into the new crop year for prices to grind higher with a forecast for a smaller total barley supply.

World barley prices have decreased over the past month, generally following the decline in world corn prices. Most Northern hemisphere regions that grow winter barley are into harvest and these supplies will soon be on the market.

For 2018-19, seeded area is forecast to increase by 13% from 2017-18 to 2.63 mln tonnes, a slight rebound from record low seeded area.

Production is forecast to increase 8% to 8.5 mln tonnes due to the higher area seeded.

Despite higher production, lower carry-in stocks will cause total supply to decrease by 5% to 9.6 mln tonnes.

Total domestic use is forecast to decrease by 1% to 6.225 mln tonnes due to slightly lower feed use but only a slight increase in industrial use.

Exports are forecast to decrease by 15% to 2.4 mln tonnes due to lower total supplies, higher world supplies and a return to normal trade patterns.

Carry-out stocks of barley are forecast to remain unchanged at 1.0 mln tonnes. The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to increase slightly from 2017-18.

The combination of tight Prairie feed barley supplies and the sharp increase in prices has encouraged the additional area. All of the western provinces are showing higher barley area, led by Manitoba with a 25% increase from 2017. For 2017, both Alberta and Saskatchewan had smaller areas so 2018 represents a recovery in area seeded. Over the past few years Saskatchewan had been increasing its barley area and it is 16% higher than 17-18 and is 13% higher than its previous three-year average. Alberta continues to have the highest area seeded to barley.

The USDA June 30 Acreage report adjusted US barley area higher from the March report, US area is estimated to be 5% higher than 2017 with good growing conditions across the barley region. The US will have reasonable barley supplies for the first part of the crop year and, with a large crop on the way, prices will be only slightly higher for the new crop.

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