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CASTLE MALTING NEWS in partnership with www.e-malt.com Danish
18 June, 2018



Barley news Canada: Barley use forecast to be up 7% this season

For 2017-18, Canada’s total domestic barley use is forecast to increase 7% to 6.288 mln tonnes due to higher feed and industrial use, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their June report.

Total barley exports are forecast to increase by 22% to a 10-year high of 2.825 mln tonnes due to the steady total supply and lower world barley supplies.

Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 53% to 1.0 mln tonnes and remain below the previous three and five-year averages.

The Lethbridge In-store feed barley price is forecast to increase due to the tight total barley supplies and the decrease in the supply of other domestic feed grain substitutes.

In the first half of March, the Lethbridge cash market staged a steady rally and it has traded close to par with Lethbridge feed wheat. It gained C$35/tonne (t) and posted crop year highs in the C$270/t range for the first time since the 2012-13 crop year. Deliveries have been slow since spring seeding finished and, with short supplies of feed barley and forages, producers have been reluctant to make delivery commitments until better information is obtained on the availability of new crop.

The average world price for feed barley has continued to hold a premium of nearly US $30/t to the price of corn. New crop supplies of the winter barley crop in the northern hemisphere will soon be available. Most forecasts are that the total supply and use will be similar to last year. World malt barley prices have also moved higher in the past month, partly due to tight supplies, especially in Australia.

For 2018-19, Canada’s barley-seeded area is forecast to increase 5% from 2017-18 and production is forecast to increase marginally to 8.0 mln tonnes.

Despite higher production, lower carry-in stocks will cause total supply to decrease by 10% to 9.1 mln tonnes, experts believe.

Total domestic use is forecast to decrease by 4% to 6.025 mln tonnes due to lower feed use but only a slight increase in industrial use.

Exports are expected to decrease by 19% to 2.3 mln tonnes due to lower total supplies, higher world supplies and a return to normal trade patterns.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 20% or to a new record low of 0.8 mln tonnes.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to increase from 2017-18.

For Canada and the US, barley seeding got off to a slow start but, by the end of May, it recovered. Rainfall in the last half of May, and warm temperatures on the Canadian Prairies, helped move the crop along. For North America, 2018 will see tighter barley stocks and positive price expectations as ending stocks of world corn and coarse grains are expected to be tight. However, lower livestock prices and profitability remain as a bearish factor. Higher US and world corn prices will provide support for domestic and international barley prices.





Tilbage



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