Industry News       English French Dutch Spanish German Russian Italian Portuguese Portuguese Danish Greek Romanian Ukrainean Chinese Polish Korean
Logo Slogan_Polish


CASTLE MALTING NEWS in partnership with www.e-malt.com Polish
24 April, 2018



Barley news Canada: Domestic barley use forecast to remain unchanged in 2017-18, increase by just 1% next season

For 2017-18, Canada’s total domestic barley use is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.898 mln tonnes as lower feed is offset by higher industrial use, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported on April 24.

Total barley exports are forecast to increase by 19% to 2.775 mln tonnes due to the steady total supply and lower world barley supplies.

Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 32% to 1.5 million tonnes and remain slightly below the previous three and five-year averages.

The Lethbridge In-store feed barley price is forecast to increase due to the tight total barley supply and the lower supply of other domestic feed grain substitutes.

In the past month, the Lethbridge barley market increased by C$15/tonne to C$244/t. This is despite the March decline in the US livestock futures which have in turn softened Canadian livestock values. By the beginning of April, Lethbridge barley was trading at a small premium to feed wheat. At this time last year, the market was considering the influx of spring-threshed cereals but this is not the case this year. Compared to the Lethbridge base, both Alberta and Saskatchewan have been narrower than average while Manitoba has been wider than average, probably due to the large supplies of Manitoba and US corn. The USDA Grain Stocks report showed March 1 US barley stocks 11% lower than 2017 and 3% lower than the previous three-year average. However, stocks are 1% higher than the previous five-year average and would be considered comfortable, based on US barley prices, lack of new crop contracting and the continuing high quality of those remaining stocks. The world feed barley market continues to post gains against the world corn market and established crop year highs by the end of March.

To-date world feed barley prices are about US$30/t higher than last crop year and remain pricey when compared to corn. The higher prices have narrowed the malt premium to equal the previous five-year average. If history remains true, a price correction is overdue and is likely to occur in June.

For 2018-19, the nation’s barley-seeded area is forecast to increase by 7% from 2017-18, to 2.5 mln ha, rebounding from a record low seeded area.

Production is forecast to increase 5% to 8.3 mln tonnes due to the higher area and a forecasted average total yield.

Despite higher production, lower carry-in stocks will cause total supply to decrease by 3% to 9.9 mln tonnes.

Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 1% to 5.95 mln tonnes due to higher feed and industrial use.

Exports are forecast to decrease by 14% to 2.4 mln tonnes due to higher world supplies and a return to normal trade patterns.

Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 3% to 1.5 mln tonnes and remain close to the previous five-year average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to decrease from 2017-18. The North American barley crop is forecast to decrease in 2018-19 due to smaller crops in Canada and the US. Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to decrease with a return to normal malt selection rates and tighter livestock feeding margins for both cattle and hogs.

The USDA Prospective Plantings report showed an 8% decrease in the US barley area to a record low for 2018. This was expected since there has been a further reduction in malt contracting year-to-year. Of the three large US barley states, only Idaho is showing an increase in area seeded which is up 6%. The combined area in Montana and North Dakota is down 35% from 2016 and 13% from 2017. For Montana and North Dakota, this is consistent with the malt barley contract reductions implemented by the major US brewers in the past three years. Despite a forecasted decline in barley area, high carry-in stocks of malt-quality barley for both Canada and the US will limit any major price recovery. Malt barley prices for Canada and the US are forecast to be similar to last year.





Wstecz



E-malt.com, the global information source for the brewing and malting industry professionals. The bi-weekly E-malt.com Newsletters feature latest industry news, statistics in graphs and tables, world barley and malt prices, and other relevant information. Click here to get full access to E-malt.com. If you are a Castle Malting client, you can get free access to E-malt.com website and publications. Contact us for more information at marketing@castlemalting.com .














We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.     Ok     Nie      Privacy Policy   





(libra 0.8633 sec.)