EU: Barley crop forecast reduced to a multi-year low of 59.6 mln tonnes

The process of putting numbers on Europe's crop production losses to cold and dry weather began in earnest as Strategie Grains cuts its grains harvest forecasts, with German prospects getting a separate downgrade by the DRV too, Agrimoney.com reported on May 18.

Strategie Grains cut its forecasts for the European Union harvests of all major grains, after marked frosts in major growing countries such as France, Germany and Poland in April, when winter crops, having emerged from dormancy, are more vulnerable to cold temperatures.

Dryness too had curtailed yield prospects in France, the UK and Belgium, while proving a significant setback in Spain.

The analysis group cut its estimate for the overall EU grains harvest by 3.6 mln tonnes to 301.6 mln tonnes, which would still represent a rise of 4.5 mln tonnes year on year, but take it further behind 2015's bumper 309.8 mln-tonne crop.

The downgrade reflected in part a 1.1 mln-tonne cut to 142.7 mln tonnes in the estimate for the EU soft wheat harvest, the world's biggest, although Strategie Grains underlined that this forecast was open yet to revision.

The biggest harvest downgrade came to the estimate for barley output, which was reduced by 1.7 mln tonnes to a multi-year low of 59.6 mln tonnes.

A figure at this level from the world's top barley grower, with the EU responsible for some 40% of global output, underlines the potential for a squeeze on global inventories, which the US Department of Agriculture sees ending 2017-18 at a 34-year low.

Separately, Deutsche Raiffeisenverband (DRV), the German association of farm co-operatives, cut its forecasts for the domestic grains harvest by 1.24 mln tonnes to 45.45 mln tonnes – taking below 190,000 tonnes the forecast rise in output above last year's "disappointing" result.

The downgrade reflected a 100,000-hectare cut to 6.26 mln hectares in sowings, besides some reduction in yield expectations.

While rains in recent weeks had provided some comfort, "it is still too dry in many regions", the DRV said.

Meanwhile, "cool weather with considerable night frosts" has setbacks crops after a spell of good weather in the run-up to Easter, besides delaying sowings of corn, for which the association slashed its forecast for Germany's harvest by 744,000 tonnes to 3.74 mln tonnes.

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